Predictions for the Next Ten Years

Agile & B2B — The Next 10 Years

Software development process innovation in the last few years has been defined by the rise of Agile. This mindshare has been driven in part by the success of companies like Amazon and the “rock star” status achieved by Agile platforms and companies like 37signals’ Ruby on Rails, the Django project, and high-profile web startups fueled by these tools and approaches. Some offshoots of Agile, such as the enterprise embrace of REST web services (per my podcast) have been creeping into the B2B enterprise. What lies ahead in the decade to come?

Two of the strongest forces pushing on B2B and the enterprise right now are the increasingly-global aspects of supply chains and outsourcing/off-shoring, and the evolution of cloud computing. These two forces have very different relationships to the rise of Agile, however. The cloud computing model really fermented in the tech startup world, which embraced Agile as a better time-to-value model for development. But Agile and off-shoring are strange bedfellows, with Agile in some cases mandating physical co-location of all project members and stakeholders.

Over the next 10 years, the confluence of cloud, Agile and globalisation in B2B will lead to the development and refinement of best practices for physically-distributed Agile development projects. As the ability to provision resources with less overhead and lead time spreads, the pressure on development to reduce cycle times for projects will increase as well. Businesses will look to strong Agile development models to meet this need, but the global nature of businesses will not permit retooling entire work forces and operations for physical cohabitation of all participants. The result will be a B2B impact on Agile just as much as vice versa. Here’s to the next 10 years!